Assessing Policy Contagion in China’s Wind Power Industry Chain

Wind power has become a strategic cornerstone of China’s renewable-energy transition and industrial upgrading, making it essential to understand how policy interventions shape the behaviour of its industry chain. This study examines how major wind power policies issued between 2015 and 2024 transmit shocks across nine upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors. Using four contagion tests based on higher-order co-moments, combined with a policy sensitivity index, the analysis identifies distinct transmission patterns across policy types. The results show that market-mechanism reforms induce the strongest and most systemic contagion effects, reflecting their ability to align financial incentives with renewable-integration objectives. Upstream sectors—particularly equipment and key material industries—exhibit the highest responsiveness, while midstream construction and downstream operation and maintenance display more moderate and delayed adjustments. Development and construction policies generate broader but less intensive contagion, whereas industry-support measures trigger selective, sector-specific responses. These findings offer practical guidance for improving policy coordination, investment planning, and industrial upgrading within China’s wind power value chain. Future research could extend the analysis by incorporating firm-level data, longer policy cycles, and interactions with other structural shocks such as electricity-market reforms and climate-related risks.