Causal Relationships and Priority Ordering in Urban Water Governance: A DANP Evaluation Framework Based on Expert Knowledge

Against the backdrop of climate change and rapid urbanization, urban water resource management faces increasing complexity. Based on the OECD’s Twelve Principles of Water Governance, this paper aims to clarify the interaction relationships and relative priorities among dimensions and indicators, providing a structured basis for decision-making in urban water governance. The DANP method is applied to construct an analytical framework encompassing three major dimensions: effectiveness, efficiency, and trust and participation, together with twelve indicators. This study moves the OECD framework from a static structure toward a causal network. By identifying causal relationships and calculating local and global weights, the analysis reveals the driving structure and evaluation focus of governance elements. The results indicate that, from a causal perspective, efficiency (D₂) and effectiveness (D₁) are the primary driving dimensions of the governance system, while trust and participation (D₃) is primarily an outcome dimension. Weight analysis reveals that trust and participation have the highest weight, at 35.28%, reflecting the strong emphasis placed on transparency, public participation, and accountability in urban water governance evaluations. At the indicator level, Monitoring and Evaluation (C₁₂) ranks highest with a global weight of 9.44%. Overall, the study offers theoretical and practical insights for coordinating institutional efficiency and governance legitimacy in climate adaptation contexts.