LEVERAGING PRIVATE PARKING SPACE CHARGING PILE POLICIES TO BOOST PRIVATE CAR ELECTRIFICATION: AN ANALYSIS BETWEEN HONG KONG AND MACAO

To investigate the impact of policy interventions on electric vehicle (EV) promotion in high-density cities, this study utilizes data on newly registered private cars in Hong Kong and Macao from 2020 to 2024. Employing the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method to construct a quasi-experimental framework, it empirically analyzes the policy-driven mechanisms behind the disparity in EV penetration rates between the two regions. The research reveals that the gap in EV penetration rates between Hong Kong and Macao widened from 3.84 percentage points in 2020 to 49.54 percentage points in 2024. Hong Kong's penetration rate surged from 12.41% to 71.09%, while Macao's increased only modestly from 8.57% to 21.55%. The DID model validation indicates that, despite Macao offering greater tax exemptions for EVs, Hong Kong's charging infrastructure support policy, centered on the "EV-charging at Home Subsidy Scheme," generated a significant net policy effect of 33.68 percentage points (adjusted R²=0.917, p<0.01), which was key to the rapid increase in penetration. The study confirms that systematic policy intervention can break the bottleneck of transport decarbonization through a virtuous cycle of "policy support → charging facility proliferation → consumer demand activation." The conclusions provide references for Macao to optimize its policy orientation, which currently emphasizes purchase over usage, and offer practical experience regarding policy synergy and infrastructure development for the transport decarbonization pathways of high-density cities globally.