Modeling of Greenhouse Gases Emissions from Hong Kong’s Air Transport Industry: 2011 to 2030

The air transport industry has played a crucial role in Hong Kong’s economic growth. However, aircraft operations produce a considerable volume of greenhouse gases emissions. By analyzing aviation kerosene consumption data from the first quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2018, this study developed a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model—ARIMA(1,1,0)(0,1,1)₄—that accurately reflects the actual consumption patterns. This model was then utilized to forecast aviation kerosene consumption from the first quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2024, a period marked by Hong Kong’s social unrest, followed by the pandemic and post-pandemic effects of COVID-19. As COVID-19 transitioned to an endemic stage, the number of aircraft movements has steadily risen over the past three years, resulting in increased aviation kerosene consumption. This study assessed the reduction in aviation kerosene consumption and the corresponding greenhouse gases emissions during the first quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2024, primarily attributed to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was determined that the reduction reached a peak of 15,973 kT of CO₂ in 2022, subsequently falling to 7020 kT of CO₂ in 2024. Utilizing both actual and forecasted consumption data, this study estimated greenhouse gases emissions from the Hong Kong air transport industry for the years 2011 to 2030.