TY - JOUR
T1 - Multi-risk factors joint prediction model for risk prediction of retinopathy of prematurity
AU - Chen, Shaobin
AU - Zhao, Xinyu
AU - Wu, Zhenquan
AU - Cao, Kangyang
AU - Zhang, Yulin
AU - Tan, Tao
AU - Lam, Chan Tong
AU - Xu, Yanwu
AU - Zhang, Guoming
AU - Sun, Yue
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2024.
PY - 2024/6
Y1 - 2024/6
N2 - Purpose: Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a retinal vascular proliferative disease common in low birth weight and premature infants and is one of the main causes of blindness in children. In the context of predictive, preventive and personalized medicine (PPPM/3PM), early screening, identification and treatment of ROP will directly contribute to improve patients’ long-term visual prognosis and reduce the risk of blindness. Thus, our objective is to establish an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm combined with clinical demographics to create a risk model for ROP including treatment-requiring retinopathy of prematurity (TR-ROP) infants. Methods: A total of 22,569 infants who underwent routine ROP screening in Shenzhen Eye Hospital from March 2003 to September 2023 were collected, including 3335 infants with ROP and 1234 infants with TR-ROP among ROP infants. Two machine learning methods of logistic regression and decision tree and a deep learning method of multi-layer perceptron were trained by using the relevant combination of risk factors such as birth weight (BW), gestational age (GA), gender, whether multiple births (MB) and mode of delivery (MD) to achieve the risk prediction of ROP and TR-ROP. We used five evaluation metrics to evaluate the performance of the risk prediction model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the area under the precision-recall curve (AUCPR) were the main measurement metrics. Results: In the risk prediction for ROP, the BW + GA demonstrated the optimal performance (mean ± SD, AUCPR: 0.4849 ± 0.0175, AUC: 0.8124 ± 0.0033). In the risk prediction of TR-ROP, reasonable performance can be achieved by using GA + BW + Gender + MD + MB (AUCPR: 0.2713 ± 0.0214, AUC: 0.8328 ± 0.0088). Conclusions: Combining risk factors with AI in screening programs for ROP could achieve risk prediction of ROP and TR-ROP, detect TR-ROP earlier and reduce the number of ROP examinations and unnecessary physiological stress in low-risk infants. Therefore, combining ROP-related biometric information with AI is a cost-effective strategy for predictive diagnostic, targeted prevention, and personalization of medical services in early screening and treatment of ROP.
AB - Purpose: Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a retinal vascular proliferative disease common in low birth weight and premature infants and is one of the main causes of blindness in children. In the context of predictive, preventive and personalized medicine (PPPM/3PM), early screening, identification and treatment of ROP will directly contribute to improve patients’ long-term visual prognosis and reduce the risk of blindness. Thus, our objective is to establish an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm combined with clinical demographics to create a risk model for ROP including treatment-requiring retinopathy of prematurity (TR-ROP) infants. Methods: A total of 22,569 infants who underwent routine ROP screening in Shenzhen Eye Hospital from March 2003 to September 2023 were collected, including 3335 infants with ROP and 1234 infants with TR-ROP among ROP infants. Two machine learning methods of logistic regression and decision tree and a deep learning method of multi-layer perceptron were trained by using the relevant combination of risk factors such as birth weight (BW), gestational age (GA), gender, whether multiple births (MB) and mode of delivery (MD) to achieve the risk prediction of ROP and TR-ROP. We used five evaluation metrics to evaluate the performance of the risk prediction model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the area under the precision-recall curve (AUCPR) were the main measurement metrics. Results: In the risk prediction for ROP, the BW + GA demonstrated the optimal performance (mean ± SD, AUCPR: 0.4849 ± 0.0175, AUC: 0.8124 ± 0.0033). In the risk prediction of TR-ROP, reasonable performance can be achieved by using GA + BW + Gender + MD + MB (AUCPR: 0.2713 ± 0.0214, AUC: 0.8328 ± 0.0088). Conclusions: Combining risk factors with AI in screening programs for ROP could achieve risk prediction of ROP and TR-ROP, detect TR-ROP earlier and reduce the number of ROP examinations and unnecessary physiological stress in low-risk infants. Therefore, combining ROP-related biometric information with AI is a cost-effective strategy for predictive diagnostic, targeted prevention, and personalization of medical services in early screening and treatment of ROP.
KW - Artificial intelligence
KW - Biometric information
KW - Early screening
KW - Infant
KW - Personalized medicine (PPPM / 3 PM)
KW - Predictive
KW - Preventive
KW - Retinopathy of prematurity
KW - Risk of blindness
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85192490030&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s13167-024-00363-7
DO - 10.1007/s13167-024-00363-7
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85192490030
SN - 1878-5077
VL - 15
SP - 261
EP - 274
JO - EPMA Journal
JF - EPMA Journal
IS - 2
ER -