Regional heterogeneity and policy evolution of China's new energy vehicle development: A multi-dimensional analysis based on dynamic time warping clustering and dual policy frameworks

Addressing the critical challenge of regional imbalance in China's new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, this study investigates the dynamic co-evolution between regional development patterns and policy intervention logics. We analyzed multidimensional provincial time-series data (2014–2023) covering NEV production, sales, ownership, and infrastructure, alongside 950 provincial policy documents (2009–2023). Methodologically, dynamic time warping (DTW) clustering was employed to capture non-linear development trajectories, while a dual analytical framework combining Hood's NATO typology and Vedung's trichotomy assessed the evolution of policy attention and instrument mixes. Key findings reveal six unique NEV development patterns driven by distinct system logics. Crucially, normalized policy analysis uncovers structural mechanisms underlying this heterogeneity: Innovation-Leading regions employ a “dual-engine” strategy of high regulation and incentives; Follow-up Development regions rely on a “compensatory strategy” with the highest intensity of fiscal subsidies to overcome latecomer disadvantages; while Potential Cultivation regions exhibit a “state-entrepreneurship” model prioritizing organizational tools for infrastructure creation. The research further identifies a spatially staggered transition in policy evolution, highlighting a shift from single-tool dominance to synergistic policy mixes. This study establishes an industry-policy co-evolutionary framework, offering crucial insights for optimizing regional NEV strategies—such as pivoting to carbon trading in leading regions and focusing on energy-transport coupling in lagging regions—ultimately fostering more balanced and sustainable growth.