Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ecological niche fitness in regional innovation ecosystem: province-level evidence from China

China needs to promptly establish a globally competitive innovative ecosystem to ensure high-quality development of the economy. This study introduces an ecosystem characterized by innovative populations, nutrients, and biotope. We employ a suitability model embedded in the WAWBO operator that assesses the ecological niches of regional innovation systems from 2012 to 2021, followed by an in-depth study of regional differences and spatial correlations of innovation ecological niches. The investigation indicated that the national innovation niche is generally stable and shows an increasing trend. Nevertheless, the overall suitability is low, and there is a notable opportunity for improvement. Furthermore, there are regional differences in the eastern, central, and western areas, and the Gini coefficient within each region shows a clear trend of “east > central > west,” demonstrating a noticeable Matthew effect. Lastly, the national innovation ecological niches display a distinct clustering pattern with low values. This study contends that it is crucial to enhance the mutually beneficial relationship between innovation subjects, logically allocate resources, reduce regional disparities, and maximize the innovation environment.