Analysis of dynamic spillover effects between carbon emission rights price, renewable energy index, and electricity sector index in China

The motivation for our study stems from the increasing complexity of spillovers between energy markets in the low-carbon energy transition and the important practical implications of ensuring a secure energy supply. In this paper, based on a time-frequency perspective, we use TVP-VAR-SV and network topology analysis to examine the dynamic linkages between China's carbon market, several renewable energy markets, and electricity markets. The results reveal asymmetric risk spillovers between markets over time, with an upward trend. The establishment of the national carbon market did not significantly change the inter-market risk structure, with the hydropower and wind markets being the main sources of risk, and the electricity and carbon markets being the main recipients of risk. Spillovers show delayed and cyclical effects, peaking within one week and lasting up to five weeks. Finally, the paper makes several suggestions for risk prevention in the energy market: strengthening ex-ante risk warning and monitoring in the energy market; formulating specific carbon market policies based on the specific relationship between the carbon market and different energy markets; and giving full play to the guiding role of the carbon price in the allocation of carbon resources.