Enhanced design of stochastic defense system with mixed game strategies

This paper uses a two-person mixed strategy game with stochastic time series to find the best strategy for conflict with uncontrollable forces, considered as an opponent. The framework of this game finds the best strategy towards preparation for a disaster or system crash. This strategic choice depends on payoffs and the chance that a disaster occurs. An analogue of the fluctuation theory is applied for finding the exact moment of decision making and the restriction of the system capacity. As such, any system which can indicate the crashing level could be described by this simple game framework. Analytically tractable results are obtained by using hybrid of the fluctuation theory and the mixed strategy game theory which enables to determine the decision making factors, including the best moment for decision making of the preliminary defense operation and the probability of the first observation moment when the system crashes.