How does tourism affect the urban heat island effect? A case study of the tourism heat footprint in Macao

This paper uses the tourism heat footprint (THF) and a structural vector autoregressive model to investigate how tourism has affected the urban heat island effect in Macao, a typical urban tourism destination. The dynamic relationships between the THF, heat island intensity (HII), and quarterly average temperature (QAT) are investigated. The impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are used to assess if a long-term causal relationship exists between the three indicators. The results show the following. (1) The hotel industry in Macao is the source of energy consumption and heat release. (2) A Granger causality relationship exists between the THF and QAT but not between the THF and HII. (3) The interaction effect between the growth rate of the THF and QAT is manifested as shocks with the same frequency and regular periodic fluctuations. (4) The heat island effect of this tourism destination is reflected in an increase in local temperature due to the energy consumption and heat release by tourists. Based on the results, policy implications for a sustainable tourism city are provided.