The influence of warming-humidifying and reclaiming wasteland on hail disasters on both sides of the Central Tianshan Mountains

The response of temporal variability of hail disasters to climate change is a research hotspot. The two sides of the Central Tianshan Mountains include Bozhou, Kuima Valley, Aksu area, and KoYuLun area. In this study, the spatial-temporal variability and causes of hail disasters on both sides of the Central Tianshan Mountains were analyzed through the multiple linear regression (MLR) methods based on the occurrence frequency of hail disasters, the disaster-affected area, economic losses, climatic factors, and crop planting area during 1961–2020. The results showed that hail disasters on both sides of the Middle Tianshan Mountains mainly occurred in the warm season from May to September, accounting for 96% of the whole year. The spatial variability of hail disasters on both sides was large, with the strongest hail damage in the Aksu area and the weakest hail damage in the KoYuLun area. The temporal variability of hail disasters on both sides of the Central Tianshan Mountains was evident. During 1961–2020, the interannual changes in the occurrence frequency and intensity of hail disasters showed a significant linear growth trend. The occurrence frequency and disaster index increased by 6.8 times and 8.1 every ten years, respectively. In the warm season, the precipitation, temperature, and crop planting area also presented a significant linear growth trend, with their contribution rates to the occurrence frequency (intensity) of hail disasters being 44% (46%), 33% (15%), and 23% (39%), respectively. On this basis, it was concluded that the occurrence frequency and intensity of hail disasters increase year by year owing to the climatic warming-humidifying progress and ever-aggravated reclaiming wasteland on both sides of the Central Tianshan Mountains.