The mediating role of trust in government in intergenerational transmission of fertility intentions

China's one-child policy was in effect from 1982 to 2015. However, the literature examining the association between people's trust in local government and intergenerational transmission of fertility intentions is scarce. To fill this gap, we investigated the impact of individuals' sibship size on their ideal number of children, the mediating effect of their trust in local government on the issue of fertility between two successive generations, and the moderating effect of education level on sibship size related to trust in local governments. Based on the 2019 Chinese Social Survey data, 2,340 respondents aged 18–35 participated in the analysis. The results showed that (i) individuals' number of siblings significantly positively predicted their ideal number of children; (ii) individuals' number of siblings significantly negatively predicted their trust in the local government, which in turn significantly negatively influenced fertility intentions; (iii) the mediating mechanism was significant in residents with higher levels of education, but not in people with lower degrees of education. Fertility-boosting incentives can prioritize couples who are the only child in their family. It is necessary for local governments to improve their credibility and strengthen their pregnancy-related communication with groups with higher levels of education.